Global mean temperature likely to exceed 1.5C limit before 2027
Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, countries pledged to try to hold global temperatures to no higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. They did this because scientists warned that multiple tipping points would probably be crossed if that level were exceeded, unleashing a cascade of increasingly catastrophic and potentially irreversible impacts.
A report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in May 2023 says there is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. And there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said:
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency. A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared.”
The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.