Speaking in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on 14 May 2024, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that Russian President Vladimir Putin must pay to rebuild what he has destroyed in Ukraine.

“What Putin destroyed, Russia should – must – pay to rebuild. It’s what international law demands. And it’s what the Ukrainian people deserve,” Mr Blinken said during his speech at Kyiv Polytechnic University.

But now that Donald Trump has become President of the United States, everything has changed. Trump seems closer to the aggressor Putin than Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Instead of talking about reconstruction, Trump is insisting that Ukraine pays the US for the cost of the arms that have been sent during the past three years.

The European Union aims to raise some of the money. It has created the Ukraine Investment Framework (UIF) which is part of the €50 billion EU’s Ukraine Facility designed to attract public and private investments for the recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine. It is endowed with financial instruments totalling €9.3 billion, with €7.8 billion in loan guarantees and €1.5 billion in blended finance.

The aim of the UIF is to mobilise €40 billion of investments for the recovery, reconstruction, and modernisation.

But that is long way from the cost of direct damage in Ukraine which, according to the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment has now reached $176 billion (€170 billion) and is just part of the total $524 billion estimated reconstruction cost.